Effect of climate change on the distribution of Magnolia schiedeana: a threatened species

Suria Gisela Vásquez-Morales, Oswaldo Téllez-Valdés, María del Rosario Pineda-López, Lázaro Rafael Sánchez-Velásquez, Norma Flores-Estevez, Héctor Viveros-Viveros


The effects of climate change on biodiversity are imminent, and these turn out to be particularly alarming for the tropical montane cloud forest. The disappearance of fragments of this forest is expected, along with some of their most characteristic species, such as Magnolia schiedeana. Mexico, through the National System of Protected Natural Areas, must consider protection strategies for those species distributed within the Protected Natural Areas that will be affected by the climate change. This study delimits the distribution of M. schiedeana in Mexico, through ecological niche and future distribution modeling under two periods: years 2040 and 2080. These distribution models tend to move towards northeastern Mexico. The potential distribution of this species declines by 0.36% and 1.94% in the first and second periods, respectively. From this result, the future role of National System of Protected Natural Areas in the long-term conservation of M. schiedeana was analyzed, prompting a proposal to focus conservation efforts on the following Protected Natural Areas: (1) At the federal level: Biosphere Reserve Sierra Gorda and Cañón de Metztitlán, Cuenca del Río Necaxa and El Potosí, National Park El Chico, Cofre de Perote, Pico de Orizaba and Los Mármoles, and Nevado de Toluca. (2) At the state level: Cerro de las Culebras, Cerro de la Galaxia, Cerro de Macuiltepetl, El Tejar Garnica, Francisco Javier Clavijero, La Martinica, Molino de San Roque, Pacho Nuevo and Predio Barragán.


bioclimatic models; conservation; endangered species; potential distribution

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.17129/botsci.116

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Botanical Sciences is an international peer-reviewed journal that publishes scientific papers in plant sciences. The arguments, figures / schemes / photographs, quality and the general contents of this publication are full responsibility of the authors, and not commit the Editor- in-Chief or the Sociedad Botánica de México.

Botanical Sciences year 8, Vol. 97, No. 3, July-September 2019. Quarterly publication edited and published by Sociedad Botánica de México A.C. (www.socbot.mx). Editor in Chief Salvador Arias, Jardín Botánico, Instituto de Biología, 3er Circuito s/n, Ciudad Universitaria, Delegación Coyoacán, C.P. 04510. Reserves of Rights to the Exclusive Use No. 04-2017-040716054100-203, digital-ISSN 2007-4476, both granted by the Instituto Nacional del Derecho de Autor. Responsible for updating the page Pedro López, email: plopez@escire.mx, eScire. Last update July 18, 2019.

Creative Commons License This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.



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